Primary Talk: Broken Primaries and Brokered Conventions

I had a thought a while back, and it’s rather interesting to see that thought is growing on many people’s minds. Is there potential for something surprising to come out of this primary. And I think there is…

I’m not a big fan of Romney, there are aspects of Newt I like, but many more aspects make him a toad. Santorum, stands for many issues I believe in, but then does it in ways I dislike.

Ron Paul, of all candidates is the one who in recent years has caused me the most reflection and self re-evaluation of what I believe to be right – and why. To me, he is the only candidate who would likely shake things up.

The primaries are confusing things. Many don’t even realize that often they’re voting in nothing more than a “straw poll” which declares who is popular at the moment. And that the real election is by the delegates. Each state handles this differently. Some states require all delegates to vote according to the polls while others do not. Furthermore, there are numerous “party members” who get to vote as an establishment – something I fundamentally disagree with.

All that said, this election has the potential to go in an unusual direction. The media has repeated called for Romney. But Romney has had some big/surprising losses both to Newt and Santorum. (And there is a good chance Maine should have gone to Ron Paul.) These set backs weaken his total dominance. It also shows that the Republican party vote is extremely split. If this trend continues with Newt and Santorum winning a few here and there. The balance could be shaped in which none of the candidates have the necessary delegates (1,144) to win the nomination on their own.

This results in a “brokered convention”, in which all delegates are allowed to vote freely if bound and in which the delegates of weaker candidates are encouragage to support the stronger candidates. Now if Romney or another candidate does go on to achieve the 1,144 necessary delegate votes. There is no brokering. But if not…things could get real fun and interesting.

There seems to be a growing speculation as to whether a brokered ticket featuring Mitt Romney & Ron Paul could come of this. And there are some peculiarities that might hint at that possibility. Areas to which speculators point to:

The fact that very little mud-slinging has occurred between the two candidates.
The two candidates have been seen as very cordial to each other off camera.Rumor has it their wives became friends in the 2008 campaign. So that might account for a lot…but it could also be a bridge.
A combined ticket might be more likely to defeat President Obama.
Even in some contentious situations (ie: Maine caucus), Ron Paul has chosen not to raise a stink on irregularities.
Ron Paul’s campaign has been organizing to take win delegate seats. Rumors persist that he is gaining more delegates than he would normally receive based on polls. And may have a fairly strong delegate hand.

So could we see a Romney/Paul ticket? Maybe….but I’m not so sure.

Ron Paul and Romney differ on many viewpoints.
If Romney wins the delegates, I doubt he’d make such a compromise.
Ron Paul is seen by many to be outside the mainstream.
It’s all just speculation and rumor.
Age…Ron Paul is older than the rest of the candidates running.

Why it might happen and might even work?

To be frank, I do not believe Romney can beat President Obama. Nor do I believe Santorum or Gingrich can, in fact, as much as I like Ron Paul – I doubt he’d be able to bring about a win over President Obama. But, quite a while back, I postulated a Romney/Paul ticket would have a much better change of winning. Ron Paul might lose half his supporters. But he also swings a small portion of the Democrat vote. And when we’re talking 2%-3% margins of win. A mere 1%-2% percentage points shifted can make all the difference.
Adding Ron Paul to the ticket is unlikely to seriously hurt Romney. Sure, there are some staunch establishment conservatives who dislike Ron Paul. But in those circles Romney can dismiss their fears by pointing to Vice President Biden as an example of the office of VP being essentially meaningless. Besides, those not liking Paul are more to be voting “against Obama”; so little negative affect will be seen vote wise.
Ron Paul might be seeking a Romney/Paul ticket. But he might not be seeking it for himself? Could he be pursuing the addition of his son, Rand Paul, to the ticket? The Kentucky Senator is younger, more junior than Romney, and doesn’t bring quite the same baggage & stigma that Ron Paul carries. Furthermore, he’s more photogenic – and that’s a big plus in modern elections.

If we do see a Mitt Romney/Rand Paul ticket – don’t be surprise. Just kick back, nuke some popcorn, and enjoy what will be a much more interesting election.

ROMNEY/PAUL 2012